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PASARAN SEDANG MEMBUAT SELF-CORRECTING.. DARIPADA KRIPTO KE SAHAM2 YANG PALING TERLEBIH NILAI
- Tong’s Portfolio
Harga Aset yang dipengaruhi emosi dan momentum telah ‘meletops ke bulan’ (sebagaimana yang digambarkan oleh pengikut Reddit & Robinhood). Mungkin anda juga hampir terjebak kerana fikirkan harga akan terus menaik dan juga sebab FOMO.
Tidak dapat dinafikan aset ‘meme’ ini – termasuk stocks, SPAC, kripto dan non-fungible tokens (NFT) telah menunjukkan prestasi yang luar biasa, sebahagian besarnya disebabkan pelabur runcit yang memiliki masa dan wang stimulus di dalam poket mereka. Trading platform tanpa cas dan media sosial juga menyemarakkan kegilaaan ini.
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Tidak ramai (itupun kalau ada) peduli tentang fundamental dan metriks asas seperti penilaian, keberuntungan, penyata imbangan ataupun model perniagaan. Ramai yang menyamakan mengejar aset2 ini umpama ‘game’, contohnya percubaan untuk menolak harga Dogecoin ke US$1.. seolah2 target ini merupakan matlamat yang jika dicapai akan memberikan ‘kemenangan’ kepada pemain game tersebut.
Kami percaya sekarang ini ramai yang ‘tewas’.. terciduk dek penjualan yang berterusan, lebih2 lagi TBNU yang ‘lewat ke parti’. Aset yang paling berisiko – termasuk Bitcoin dan saham yang diberikan penilaian terlalu tinggi, sekarang ini mengalami kejatuhan besar daripada ketinggian rekod mereka. Aset2 ini merupakan sumber kerisauan dimana mereka dilihat sebagai ‘growing bubble’ dan kejatuhan mereka yang tidak dapat dielakkan akan memberi impak kepada pasaran yang lebih besar.
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Aset2 yang diberikan penilaian terlalu tinggi ini popular dengan pelabur runcit, walaupun setelah mengalami ‘price correction’ yang agak banyak. Separuh daripada syarikat2 ini adalah syarikat2 rugi dan ada juga yang langsung tiada jualan.
Berserta dengan 5 kripto bernilai terbesar, kenaikan aset2 ini telah didorong terutamanya oleh kelebihan cairan dan kemudahan mendapatkan wang.
Justeru, adalah logik untuk pelabur2 ini mula merasa takut jika kecairan dan kadar faedah yang sangat rendah ini tidak lagi akan menjadi sesuatu yang pasti, disebabkan kadar inflasi yang semakin bertambah.
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Pasaran cenderung untuk naik atau turun secara berlebihan, terutamanya apabila didorong oleh emosi. Tetapi dalan jangka masa yang panjang, pasaran secara am adalah efisyen dan akan membuat pembetulan dengan sendirinya – seperti yang sedang berlaku sekarang.
Sememangnya, ‘correction’ ini mengurangkan kerisauan terhadap risiko sistemik, iaitu market crash hasil daripada spekulasi yang disebabkan oleh kecairan berlebihan dan juga tindakan tidak rasional.
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Kebanyakan syarikat akan terkesan (oleh ‘correction’ ini) dan ini sesuatu yang tidak dapat dielakkan. (Table 3 dalam artikel ni) menyenaraikan beberapa syarikat teknologi yang harganya terkesan oleh ‘correction’ ini walaupun selepas melapurkan keuntungan yang mantap dan lebih bagus daripada jangkaan dalam lapuran perolehan 1Q2021. Tetapi ternyata kejatuhan mereka agak kecil. (Syarikat2 yang dimaksudkan adalah FAANG, Microsoft, Nvidia, Paypal, ASML, Adobe, Intel dan Broadcom Inc)
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Harga saham dan penilaian adalah sesuatu yang relatif. Dan bila saham spekulatif dan saham terlampau harga mengalami kejatuhan.. ia akan menyeret keseluruhan pasaran untuk sementara waktu. Akan ada kemerosotan kekayaan – pedagang akan merasa lebih miskin, kurang positif semasa cut loss dan/ataupun pelangsain posisi margin akan mengurangkan wang untuk membeli saham2 lain.
Ini pula akan mengakibatkan sentimen ‘kurang mahu mengambil risiko’ dan mengakibatkan kelemahan di keseluruhan pasaran. Ini adalah efek yang berlawanan dengan pasaran yang lebih tinggi sebelumnya.
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Kami berpendapat pelabur akan terus tertarik kepada ‘growth stocks’ selepas membetulkan semula tanggapan mereka dimana 2021 merupakan tahun titik perubahan terhadap inflasi dan kadar faedah.
Pelabur2 bijak perlulah lebih arif dalam memilih ‘winners’, walaupun sudah memilih aset yang betul berdasarkan trend dan sektor.
Sebagai contoh, walaupun kenderaan elektrik (EV) mungkin merupakan kenderaan masa hadapan tetapi tidak semua syarikat EV akan bertahan didalam persaingan.
‘Pelaburan bukanlah hanya sekadar mengharapkan ada orang lain yang sanggup membayar harga yang lebih tinggi daripada harga yang kita bayar.’
Credit kepada Pn Yasmin CPMT8.
Channel saham : https://t.me/kisstrader
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this time.
Brandon Marsh hit a three-run homer and J.T. Realmuto
lined an inside-the-park home run that sent the Philadelphia Phillies bolting headfirst into
the NL Championship Series for the first time since 2010 with
an 8-3 win over the Atlanta Braves in Game 4 Saturday.Realmuto became the first
catcher to hit an inside-the-parker in postseason history and Bryce Harper punctuated the romp with a clinching home run that
helped the Phillies take the NL Division Series 3-1 against the World Series champion Braves.The Phillies will face either San Diego or the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS.
The Padres held a 2-1 lead over the Dodgers going into Game 4 of the NLDS matchup Saturday night. Atlanta’s loss meant Major League Baseball hasn’t had a repeat champ since the New York Yankees won three straight from 1998-2000.Philadelphia
finished third in the NL East, 14 games behind the 101-win Braves this season, but now is hitting on all cylinders under manager Rob Thomson. He took over for the fired Joe Girardi and transformed a team that
was 22-29 in early June.And the Phillies used a dose of Marsh Madness to keep
the party rolling in October. Philadelphia Phillies Brandon Marsh (16) reacts to his three-run homer during the second inning in Game 4 of baseball’s National League Division Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies Brandon Marsh (16) hits a three-run homer
during the second inning in Game 4 of baseball’s National League Division Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and
the Atlanta Braves Heck, call it Mash Madness, as the Phillies turned
Citizens Bank Park into a cozy home bandbox for the second straight game
— and with another fired-up, towel-waving crowd along for every long ball.After Rhys Hoskins spiked his bat on a three-run shot in a Game 3 win, it was Marsh´s turn in the second inning to hammer his own three-run homer
in Game 4.Braves starter Charlie Morton was hit
on his pitching elbow by Alec Bohm´s single
traveling 71.9 mph to lead off the inning. After being checked, Morton allowed a single to
Jean Segura and hung a 2-2 curveball that the No. 9 hitter Marsh launched deep into the right field seats for a 3-0 lead. Philadelphia Phillies
J.T. Realmuto (10) celebrates with Philadelphia Phillies Jean Segura (2) after
Realmuto’s RBI-single during the sixth inning in Game 4 of baseball’s National League Division Series between the Philadelphia Phillies
and the Atlanta Braves RELATED ARTICLES
Share this article Share The 24-year-old Marsh is
known as much for his stringy hair and ZZ Top-esque beard as he is for being one of the top young players on the Phillies.
Marsh, who also doubled in the fourth, was acquired from
the Los Angeles Angels in August just ahead of this season´s
trade deadline. Phillies President Dave Dombrowski swung another deadline
deal with the Angels that got them Game 4 starter Noah
Syndergaard, also known for his long locks.Hey, it
will be easy for the Phillies to let their hair down and party.Reliever Brad
Hand was one of six Philadelphia pitchers and got the win.Syndergaard, bumped
from the rotation at the end of the season, wasn´t asked by Thomson to
do much other than keep the Phillies in the game.
Maybe go unscathed once around the order . Syndergaard delivered with three strikeouts in three innings in a brief throwback to his commanding “Thor” days with the New York Mets.
Atlanta Braves relief pitcher A.J. Minter (33) works during
the sixth inning in Game 4 of baseball’s National League Division Series between the Philadelphia
Phillies and the Atlanta Braves, SaturdayOrlando Arcia hit a solo shot off
him in the third to make it 3-1.Realmuto then hustled his way into postseason history.He connected
to lead off the third inning against reliever Collin McHugh.
The ball hit the angled portion of the wall beyond the reach of center fielder Michael Harris II, and the carom rolled along the warning track toward right-center.
Ronald Acuña Jr. stood in right field watching the play, and
didn´t start running toward the ball until
Realmuto was well past first base. Realmuto, who runs extremely well for a catcher,
made a headfirst slide into the plate, well ahead of the relay.With that, it was bedlam inside the park,
as a sellout crowd of 45,660 was deliriously cheering, every sense tingling that there wasn´t going
to be a Game 5.Nope. Just Game 3 of the NLCS back in Philly
on Friday. Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia
Phillies celebrates a home run against the Atlanta Braves during
the eighth inning in game four of the National League
Division Series at Citizens Bank ParkHarper hit a solo homer in the eighth, the second of the series for the reigning
NL MVP.It seemed fitting the trio of Phillies sluggers that form the heart of the franchise put the game away in the sixth.
Hoskins-Realmuto-Harper all had RBI singles that made it 7-2 and a series
clinch a mere formality.The Phillies trotted out 2008 World Series champion Pat Burrell to throw the first pitch after
his teammate from ’08 Shane Victorino did the same before Game 3.
The Phillies run of five straight postseason appearances — that included the 2009 NL pennant — stretched from 2007 to 2011 until the franchise was saddled with so many dry years without
hope. They no longer have to look at Burrell, Victorino
and other members of that run as the only reminders of postseason stars — Harper, Hoskins, Realmuto, Marsh have carved
their own October marks, with at least one more series ahead. Atlanta Braves center
fielder Michael Harris II (23) watches play during the sixth inning in Game 4 of baseball’s National
League Division Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves
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